China International Futures Plastics warming up in the peak consumption season-ajviewer

Chinese International Futures: a modest rise in consumption season boost plastic and beauty oil prices $50 shocks figure 1: U.S. crude oil k-week                                       & nbsp;;                                                     source: financial, mid U.S. crude oil Research Institute $50 shocks. The dollar remained strong, pushing oil prices down, although the recent OPEC members have voice support for limited production, but the internal interests of the difference is still large, which laid a hidden danger for the November policy meeting. Beijing early morning of October 26th, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released data show that as of October 21st week, the U.S. API crude oil inventories increased 4 million 750 thousand barrels, had expected to increase 800 thousand barrels, the former value decreased by 3 million 788 thousand barrels; on the other hand, Russia and Iraq against the "frozen" also let the market fluctuate. This makes the prospect of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil freeze agreement, which was headed by Saudi Arabia in November, become more and more complicated and confusing. OPEC. Without other basic guidelines, crude oil falls into a narrow range of shocks. Two, plastics, PP spot prices steadily higher in recent years, the plastic futures disk continues to rise, but also further improve the confidence in the spot market business. Specifically, the price of PE market continued to rise yesterday, and the price of each region increased by 50-200 tons. Plastic futures continue to rise higher, petrochemical companies continue to pull up, the market under high cost support, with the increase reported shipment. Terminal inquiry enthusiasm is weak, just need to purchase the main trend. Part of the petrochemical area ex factory price continue to hike, the market cost of support to further enhance. In September, due to the tight supply, PE prices rose rapidly. After the national day, due to the supply is still tense, petrochemical enterprises continue to raise the ex factory price. High raw material prices, downstream procurement partial caution. The petrochemical enterprises have cut down the ex factory price slightly, but the decline is limited. Upstream industry profits are still considerable, at the level of 2000-3000 yuan per ton, the coal chemical industry is still expected to put into production later. Petrochemical profit is closely related to crude oil price fluctuation. As the spot price rose last week, the profits of upstream oil and coal to polyethylene rose slightly. Methanol prices rose sharply, resulting in methanol to polyethylene profits fell nearly 500 yuan per ton. Figure 2: spot price of plastic. 中国国际期货:消费旺季提振 塑料温和上涨   一、美油价50美元震荡整理   图1:美原油周K线                                                 资料来源:文华财经、中期研究院   美原油50美元震荡整理。美元保持强势令油价承压下挫,虽然近期石油输出国组织(OPEC)各主要成员国纷纷发声支持限产,但内部利益分歧依然较大,这为11月的政策会议埋下隐患。北京时间10月26日凌晨,美国石油协会(API)公布的数据显示,截至10月21日当周,美国API原油库存大增475万桶,此前预期增加80万桶,前值为减少378.8万桶;另一方面,俄罗斯和伊拉克反对“冻产”也让市场产生波动。这让11月以沙特为首OPEC的原油冻产协议的前景重新变得扑朔迷离。若无其他基本面的指引的话,原油陷入窄幅区间震荡概率加大。   二、塑料,PP现货价格稳步走高   近期,塑料期货盘面不断走高,也进一步提高了现货市场上商家的信心。具体来看,昨日PE市场价格继续走高,各大区线性价格上涨50-200元 吨。塑料期货延续高开上扬,石化企业继续拉涨,市场在高成本支撑下,跟涨报盘出货。终端询价积极性偏弱,刚需采购为主势。部分石化大区出厂价继续调涨,对市场的成本支撑进一步增强。9月,由于货源紧俏,PE价格快速上涨。国庆节后,由于供应仍显紧张,石化企业继续上调出厂价格。原料价格高企,下游采购偏谨慎。不得已,石化企业小幅下调出厂价格,但跌幅有限。   上游行业利润依然可观,在保持在 2000-3000 元 吨的水平,煤化工后期依然有投产预期。 石化利润与原油价格波动密切相关。 随着上周现货价格上涨,上游油制、煤制聚乙烯的利润略有上涨。甲醇价格大幅上涨, 导致甲醇制聚乙烯利润下降了近 500 元每吨。   图2:塑料现货价格  元 吨,美元 吨     资料来源:wind、中期研究院   图3:PP现货价格           元 吨,美元 吨     资料来源:wind、中期研究院   三、农膜行业传统旺季提振原料PE消费   农膜行业的生产淡旺季特征明显,9―11月通常为生产旺季,也即LLDPE LDPE的消费旺季。PE功能膜需求延续旺季水平,厂家订单积累,棚膜厂家开工率较高,多数在60%―90%,部分厂家甚至满负荷生产。EVA日光膜和PO膜的市场需求稍有减弱,厂家开工率在50%―70%。整体上,农膜市场旺季需求的持续将支撑其对原料PE的消费。   虽然随着价格走高,市场心态更加谨慎,终端工厂多刚需为主,成交显僵持,但临近月底石化库存位于低位,下周期货多将偏强走势,且下游农膜企业尚在旺季,均利好于现货市场。 就原料各单体市场来看,因炒作因素较多,故后续仍有一定推涨空间,成本上扬,市场价格伴有一定推涨预期。   图4:塑料制品产量      万吨    资料来源:wind、中期研究院   四、操作策略及风险点揭示   资料来源:文华财经、中期研究院   操作策略:塑料1701合约周线级别考验9560一线的突破,若突破背靠9600一带轻仓多头进场,进场点位下浮300点为止损位。PP1701合约多头趋势良好,背靠8000一带多头进场,进场点位下浮300点为止损位。   风险点:美元指数暴涨,施压大宗商品;原油持续持续阴跌跌破40美元 桶这一重要整数关口。   中国国际期货 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: