Foreign exchange outflow pressure increases, enterprises dare to rush into the territory of foreign -faxuan.net

Foreign exchange outflow pressure companies not to rush into the territory of foreign exchange settlement funds face tight outflow pressure increasing trend is hard to change this reporter Chen Zhi Intern He Jingjing Shanghai reported domestic liquidity tightening, still can reduce the pressure of RMB devaluation. At 19 in October 27th, the spot exchange rate of US dollar against the RMB hovered at 6.7803, while the offshore market in Hongkong fluctuated with the RMB exchange rate near 6.7920, reaching a record low of 6.7929 in the intraday market. "That’s quite unusual." A state-owned bank foreign exchange traders pointed out that in the past, when the domestic capital liquidity tensions, can always bring some support to the stabilization of the rmb. The number of investment institutions ignore the market practice, still doing selling renminbi arbitrage. In his opinion, the deep-seated reasons behind, is that these institutions have passed the central bank recently to restart the 14 day and the 28 day repurchase period of 3 months, stop MLF means continuously push the funds rate of mild uplift, the main purpose is to force some financial institutions to leverage higher leverage, rather than the RMB exchange rate based on the consideration of. However, the market began to worry that foreign exchange reserves continue to decrease, the domestic financial market may face more severe liquidity pressure. Funds face tension in the aforementioned state-owned foreign exchange traders view, after the central bank has repeatedly tightened the domestic capital flow moderately, to achieve the purpose of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate. The reason is that the moderate tightening of domestic capital liquidity makes the repurchase rate of each period rise a certain extent, which induces all kinds of domestic capital to participate in the investment to obtain higher returns, effectively slow down the pressure of capital outflow, and form a strong support for the stable rebound of rmb. "At first, we think that the central bank is modeled on." He said that due to tight liquidity, 27 in early trading on the Shanghai stock exchange overnight reverse repurchase bonds (GC001) rose to 18%, the 2 day reverse repurchase bonds (GC002) reached 8.805%; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange overnight reverse repurchase bonds (R-001) rose to 15.778%, the 2 day Treasury reverse repurchase rate (R-002) reached 7.5%. The investment income is enough to attract a lot of domestic capital to obtain higher returns in the territory. He quickly found that the central bank’s move was not based on the RMB exchange rate considerations. The reason is that recently, the central bank has been increasing the amount of money to ease the liquidity of the market situation; on the other hand, the domestic capital liquidity tension may not be able to effectively alleviate the pressure of RMB devaluation under the rising interest rate of the U.S. dollar. Reporters learned that the move still plays a certain market effect, 27 early morning domestic dollar against the RMB fell less than the offshore market. However, the decline in the RMB exchange rate in the domestic market slowed down and did not support the RMB exchange rate in the offshore market. 27 in early trading, offshore RMB under the pressure of international speculative capital, once touched record lows of 6.7929. "Now that foreign speculative capital, the dollar rate hike is expected to heat up years has become the most short of RMB

外汇占款流出压力增大 企业不敢贸然结汇流入境内   外汇占款流出压力增大 资金面紧势难改   本报记者 陈植 实 习 生 何晶晶 上海报道   境内资金流动性趋紧,依然没能减轻人民币贬值压力。   截至10月27日19时,境内市场美元兑人民币即期汇率徘徊在6.7803,香港离岸市场美元兑人民币汇率在6.7920附近波动,盘中触及纪录低点6.7929。   “这的确比较反常。”一位国有银行外汇交易员指出,以往当境内资本流动性紧张时,总能给人民币企稳带来一定的支撑。此次不少投资机构却无视这种市场惯例,依然我行我素沽空人民币套利。   在他看来,这背后深层次的原因,就是这些机构认为近期央行陆续通过重启14天、28天逆回购,停止3个月期限MLF等手段不断推动资金利率温和抬升,主要目的是迫使部分杠杆较高的金融机构去杠杆,而不是基于人民币汇率的考量。   不过,市场开始担心,外汇占款持续减少,国内金融市场可能面临更严峻的流动性紧张压力。   资金面紧张   在前述国有银行外汇交易员看来,此前央行曾多次通过适度收紧境内资本流动性,达到维持人民币汇率稳定的目的。究其原因,境内资本流动性适度收紧,令各期限回购利率出现一定幅度上涨,诱使境内各类资本纷纷参与投资获取较高回报,有效减缓资本流出压力,对人民币企稳反弹构成较强的支撑。   “起初,我们觉得央行是在如法炮制。”他表示,受流动性紧张影响,27日早盘上海证券交易所隔夜国债逆回购(GC001)一度升至18%,2天期国债逆回购(GC002)则达到8.805%;深交所隔夜国债逆回购(R\-001)一度升至15.778%,2天期国债逆回购(R\-002)利率则达到7.5%。这份投资收益足以吸引不少境内资本留在境内获取较高回报。   他很快发现,央行此举并不是基于人民币汇率的考量。究其原因,近日央行一直在加大货币投放量,缓解市场流动性紧张局面;另一方面境内资本流动性紧张也未必能有效缓解美元加息预期升温下的人民币贬值压力。   记者多方了解到,此举还是起到一定市场效果,27日早盘境内美元兑人民币的下跌幅度小于离岸市场。   但是,境内市场人民币汇率跌幅放缓,并没有给离岸市场人民币汇率构成支撑。27日早盘,离岸人民币在国际投机资本的打压下,盘中一度触及记录低点6.7929。   “如今境外投机资本认为,美元年内加息预期升温已经成为沽空人民币的最佳时机。”一家香港银行外汇交易员表示。   不过,这导致27日境内外人民币汇差空间持续扩大,在离岸市场美元兑人民币触及记录低点6.7929时,境内美元兑人民币即期汇率徘徊在6.7780附近,汇差从此前数日的70-80个基点,一度扩大至约150个基点。   这引来中资银行入市干预。上述外汇交易员透露,在离岸美元兑人民币跌破6.79时,中资银行开始卖出美元提振人民币汇率,不断缩小境内外人民币汇差防止套利交易卷土重来。   “这意味着,境内资本流动性收紧不会对人民币近期走势构成实质性的影响。”上述香港银行外汇交易员直言,但从中长期而言,在人民币加入SDR后,要确保人民币汇率不出现无序大幅波动,央行需要保持离岸和在岸市场人民币汇差的相对稳定。因此,境内外人民币利差稳定同样必不可少。近期央行之所以通过公开市场操作提升短期利率,还有一个原因,就是海外市场人民币短期利率持续抬升,令央行只能引导境内市场短期利率跟随上行,避免境内外利差收窄引发大量人民币从境内流向境外,引发更大的人民币汇率波动。   “近日境内隔夜平均利率从1.9%上升到2.1%,也许就是基于这种考量,尽管这加重了市场对资金流动性紧张的担忧。”上述外汇交易员表示。   外汇占款持续下降   在多位金融业内人士看来,近期人民币汇率波动正给境内资金流动性持续紧张构成新的压力。   华创证券分析师屈庆指出,近期人民币贬值压力加大,外汇占款的流出也随之加快,导致国内基础货币快速收缩,也是近期境内资金流动性持续收紧的主要原因之一。   屈庆估算,9月末国内超储率已降至1.5%左右。随着10月人民币汇率调整,外汇占款流出压力进一步加大,势必导致基础货币持续收缩,资金面收紧压力日益加大。   多位银行人士也向21世纪经济报道记者证实,随着人民币汇率跌破6.7,过去三周企业结汇意愿出现一定幅度的下降。不少企业宁愿将对外贸易所得的大部分美元资金留在香港壳公司,也不敢贸然结汇流入境内。   具体而言,这些企业先在香港设立一家窗口公司,将商品卖给这个窗口公司,再由窗口公司卖给境外买家,由此窗口公司可以留存大量贸易所得的美元资金。   “这些企业之所以将美元滞留在境外壳公司,也有减轻年底缴税压力的筹划。”一位银行人士指出。但他最担心的是,这将令外汇占款持续回落。   申万宏源宏观分析师李慧勇发布的最新报告表示,随着美联储年底大概率加息的时点临近,以及每年1月份居民换汇增加的季节性因素,年底外汇占款可能将持续下行,甚至会加速下行。   央行调查统计司司长阮健弘解释称,9月份外汇占款下降,部分是由于国庆长假出境游需求旺盛,导致9月份购汇需求阶段性增加,央行向市场提供了一定的外汇流动性支持。此外,月份外汇占款下降也与央行为了支持走出去战略,向一些金融机构提供相关外汇资金安排有关。   “不过,市场需要警惕的是,一旦外汇占款进一步回落,加之央行拟将银行表外理财业务纳入MPA(宏观审慎评估体系)‘广义信贷’测算,在央行延续防风险、降杠杆、稳汇率的政策导向下,资金面紧张的现状短期难以缓和。”屈庆向21世纪经济报道记者表示。   (编辑:包芳鸣) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: