Galaxy Futures new corn will be listed, facing pressure-t6570

Galaxy Futures: new grain will soon be listed, corn face pressure, the client to see the latest market, the market review of domestic corn spot market prices continue to rebound. Analysis of the main reasons are as follows: one of the needs of the enterprise itself, the stock is not much bearish outlook, and reduce the inventory level in the processing condition, poor efficiency, the subsequent inventory of two, the market gradually tight; the rotation of grain supply reduction, before the market rumors have 3 million tons of annual output of 2014 tons of corn on the move, but the delay in cashing three, Hubei and Hunan; spring maize by continuous rainy weather, listed more slowly, and the quality is not good; four, the decline in the supply of grain rotation and grain market, the auction is not ideal because of the shrinking turnover. Under the influence of these various factors, the domestic spot market prices rebounded significantly during the week, but the latter is expected to continue to rebound in limited space, the autumn maize listed near the time based, and national or one-time dump 20 million tons this week, temporary storage auction turnover increased and other considerations. Figure 1: corn futures 1701 contract price trend data source: Mandarin finance Galaxy futures two, spot market situation, the northeast region corn spot price as a whole stable operation. The basic trade purchase and sale in Northeast China is dull, and the spot quotation is stable. At present, the price difference between North China and Northeast China is widening, and traders are active in shipping. But because of the recent increase in freight forwarding, intermediate profit space narrowing, where the outflow of limited progress. Today, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang regional reserve auction rate continued to increase compared with last week, the premium space narrow expansion, expected changes in the short term market behavior in narrow range, but the upside is not large. The drought in some areas of Northeast China is serious, and the reduction of regional market has become a foregone conclusion. China Corn spot prices continue to run strong, deep processing enterprises offer today continue to rise, increases in the range between 20-40 yuan per ton, price over 2000 yuan tons of acquisition of some enterprises. The enterprise began to acquire new season maize and its surrounding areas, a few companies offer new corn and have spread from the northeast. In recent two days, the rainfall in North China is larger, which affects the drying progress of new corn. The amount of new corn is still low, and the traders offer to maintain high level. Late spring corn will be concentrated listing, spot prices rise narrowed, or there is shock down market. Southern region sales corn market remained stable operation. The replenishment period of feed enterprises has been ending, and the market trading situation tends to be light. The supply of grain for the spot market mainstream northeast corn and local spring maize rotation, and another part of the northwest spring corn market, quality and price are considerable. The supply environment is loose, the supply of new corn is basically no gap, and the purchasing power of enterprises increases. At the same time, because of the expected supply of the market increases, the purchasing rhythm is relatively gentle, and the fluctuation range of the spot market quotation is narrow. Is expected in the short term, the market sales of corn spot prices mainly lack of support, the overall smooth running, or regional and periodic concussion market. South Port corn spot sales offer narrow range. Guangdong port corn stocks continue to decline, the current has less than 100 thousand tons, the theoretical effective supply of less than 4 days, traders quote steady bias.

银河期货:新粮即将上市 玉米面临压力 客户端 查看最新行情   一、行情回顾   国内玉米现货市场价格继续反弹。分析原因主要有以下几点:之一、需求企业看空后市本身库存备货不多,且在加工效益不佳的状况下、降低库存水平,后续库存逐步偏紧;之二、市场轮换粮供应量缩减,之前市场传言有300万吨2014年产移库玉米投放,但迟迟未能兑现;之三、两湖地区春玉米受持续阴雨天气影响,上市速度较为缓慢,并且质量不好;之四、轮换粮供应量下降,而拍卖粮因行情不理想而成交萎缩。在上述多方面因素影响下,国内现货市场价格周内反弹明显,但是预计后期继续反弹空间有限,基于对秋玉米上市时间临近,以及国家或将一次性转储2000万吨,本周临储拍卖成交量增加等方面的考虑。   图1:玉米期货1701合约价格走势   资料来源:文华财经 银河期货   二、现货市场情况   东北产区玉米现货价格整体平稳运行。东北地区基层贸易购销平淡,现货报价整体稳定。当前华北与东北地区价差拉大,贸易商发运态度积极。但因近期运费上调,中间发运利润空间缩窄,粮源外流进度受限。今日内蒙古与黑龙江地区临储拍卖成交率较上周继续增加,溢价空间窄幅扩大,预计短期内行情变动以窄幅上行为主,但上行空间不大。东北局部地区旱情严重,区域市场减产基本已成定局。   关内产区玉米现货价格继续趋强运行,深加工企业收购报价继续上调,今日上调幅度在20-40元 吨之间,部分企业收购报价超2000元 吨。企业开始收购本地及周边地区新季玉米,少数企业新玉米收购报价与东北陈粮存在一定价差。近两日华北地区降雨较大,影响新玉米晾晒脱水进度,新玉米上量依旧偏低,贸易商报价维持高位。后期春玉米将集中上市,现货价格上涨空间缩窄,或有震荡回落行情。   南方销区玉米行情维持平稳运行。饲料企业补库周期陆续收尾,市场贸易购销局面趋于清淡。现货市场主流供应粮源为东北轮换玉米和当地春玉米,另有部分西北春玉米上市,质量以及价格均可观。现货供应环境整体宽松,新陈玉米供应基本无缺口,企业采购力度增大同时,因市场可预期供应量加大,采购节奏相对平缓,现货市场报价波动幅度较窄。预计短期内,销区市场玉米现货价格上涨支撑不足,整体平稳运行为主,或有区域性、阶段性震荡调整行情。   南方港口玉米现货销售报价窄幅趋强。广东港内玉米库存继续下降,当前已不足10万吨,理论有效供应不足4日,贸易商报价稳中偏强。周内剩余到货约20万吨以上,一定程度上将缓解供需紧张格局,后期价格继续上涨空间缩减。当前港口辽吉轮换玉米贸易商报价1960-1980元 吨,少量优质玉米销售报价2000元 吨左右,偏差玉米报价1860-1900元 吨。北方港口行情依旧清淡,集港量偏低,贸易商以消耗前期库存为主。东北港口集港成本受临储拍卖成交价格上涨推动上行,临储拍卖辽吉二等玉米理论集港价格1800-1820元 吨,理论平舱价格1850-1870元 吨,南北贸易利润倒挂约5元 吨。   图2:东北地区玉米价格   图3:港口玉米价格   资料来源:国家粮油信息中心 银河期货   图4:华北地区玉米价格   图5:南方销区玉米价格   资料来源:国家粮油信息中心 银河期货   三、临储玉米情况   当前玉米现货市场以政策粮供应为主,包括定向拍卖、临储拍卖以及国储轮换,据博朗咨询公司统计,截至7月底今年共计拍卖成交了1269.95万吨玉米,其中“分贷分还”临储拍卖共投放1600万吨,实际成交361.27万吨;“超期及??囤储”拍卖共投放2257万吨,实际成交约897万吨;“美国2号黄玉米”拍卖,共投放25万吨,实际成交8.68万吨。除此之外,国家一次性转储投放2000万吨。另外,国家还针对燃料乙醇企业进行专项拍卖,具体成交数据不详。就目前拍卖及轮换数据统计,今年以来政策粮供给销售约3270万吨。   图6:跨省移库玉米拍卖情况   图7:东北临储玉米拍卖情况   资料来源:国家粮油信息中心 银河期货   四、下游市场情况   南方多省遭遇洪水袭击,部分养殖场90斤以下生猪尚可转移,90斤以上生猪只能屠宰以尽量减少损失,区域市场生猪存栏量快速缩减。月中起,高温天气席卷国内多数地区,南方省区温度飙升,抑制居民肉制品消费,生猪报价持续下行。养殖行业为规避疫情风险,压栏减少。同时为回流资金,近期出栏热情较高,内贸玉米终端饲用需求持续缩减。同时豆粕、DDGS价格冲高回落,进口高粱大麦供应充足,不完善粒小麦取代玉米作为禽类、水产类饲料使用,内贸玉米市场份额继续被挤占。而当前大型饲料企业原料库存相对充足,近期部分企业关注春玉米上市,同时中小型企业国产小麦、进口谷物替代现象依旧普遍,企业对于内贸玉米采购心态依旧谨慎。   玉米淀粉销售旺季不旺、玉米蛋白粉、纤维价格不断下跌,企业加工利润持续处于亏损状态,限产现象增多。当前部分企业开始试探性上调产品报价,但短期内市场成交弱势,企业亏损难以扭转。同时山东河北等地加工企业陆续进入例行检修期,停产、减产现象增多;同事阶段性降雨天气也抑制了酒精消费,在消费持续偏弱的情况下,企业运营艰难,酒精厂开机率持续下滑。从目前市场状况来看,企业下游需求寻找不到利好支撑。加工效益欠佳,影响企业整体开工积极性,原料玉米需求同样缺乏有力提振,深加工企业在保有一定玉米库存的情况下,厂门收购意愿不强,玉米工业需求量呈现下滑趋势。   图8:猪粮比价   图9:淀粉加工利润   资料来源:国家粮油信息中心 银河期货   五、操作建议   华北深加工企业厂门报价持续上调,与东北产区玉米发货成本价差拉开,东北粮源外运利润增加,贸易商发运热情重启,近期东北粮源运抵华北企业数量增多,部分用粮企业东北粮源收购报价与本地自然干新粮报价存在一定价差。当前华北地区因降雨天气来袭,新粮上市数量不多,企业高报价尚可维持;随后期晴好天气增加,新季玉米晾晒进度加快,企业上量增加的同时,后期厂门报价必将回归合理位置。昨日黑龙江省启动Ⅳ级干旱灾害应急响应,因当前省内受灾面积已经逾3000万亩,建议关注旱情对行情影响。   银河期货 孙禹 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: