Real estate multi index deviation analysis, real estate prices are facing adjustment risk increase (-diying

Real estate index from the analysis that the real estate prices are 1 to 8 investment in real estate development and sales data adjustment increase the risk of the Xinhua News Agency criticized the real estate risk of the National Bureau of statistics released in 13 revealed a message, the risk of the real estate market is intensifying. "Economic Reference News" reporter found that the current real estate market indicators appear to deviate from each other: on the one hand, the phenomenon of soaring prices at the same time, this should be accelerated to the inventory of real estate has a downward trend; on the other hand, in the area of housing construction, new construction area, the completion area, sales area, land area growth have come down at the same time, the national real estate development and investment growth is up. Insiders said that in the credit over expected, the current "King" layer, more panic housing. But in the face of changes in capital, real estate prices are facing increased risk of adjustment. Data show that from 1 to August, the real estate development enterprises housing construction area of 7 billion 1 million 210 thousand square meters, an increase of 4.6%, the growth rate down 0.2 percentage points to 1 in July; the new housing construction area of 1 billion 68 million 340 thousand square meters, an increase of 12.2%, the growth rate down 1.5 percentage points; real estate development company purchased land area of 129 million 220 thousand square meters, down 8.5%. A decline of more than 1 to 0.7 percentage points in July to expand. It is worth noting that, although several typical real estate index has declined, but the national real estate development and investment growth is more than 1 to July increased by 0.1 percentage points, up to 64387 yuan, representing a nominal increase of 5.4%. It is reported that investment growth accelerated or due to a departure from the area to purchase and decline the high price of land transactions. Data show that, although the land area declined, but eight months before the land transaction price soared 7.9%, last month increased by 0.8 percentage points, up to 463 billion 200 million yuan. Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei said that since 2016, support for real estate investment construction data has dropped. In August, the new construction area continued to slow down significantly, thereby affecting investment. However, investment growth has incremental data. In addition, although housing prices land acquisition area declined, but the amount has risen sharply. "Data divergence" shows that in some hot cities, irrational behavior is increasing." Zhang Dawei said. This year, the influx of funds into the real estate market. Peng Yuan credit rating Co. Ltd. research and development department researcher Yuan Quanquan said that from the bond market, according to the statistical data in July 21st last year to July 21st this year, in recent years, housing prices issuance period reached 467, direct financing totaling 848 billion 145 million yuan, housing prices in the domestic bond issue number and scale growth spurt. In addition, housing prices in place, the source of funds structure changes. Data show that from 1 to August, real estate development enterprises in place of funds 91573 yuan, an increase of 14.8%, the growth rate than 1 to July down 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the domestic loan growth is only 1.7%, the use of foreign capital dropped by 52.6%, the self raised funds increased by only 0.6%, and other funds increased by 34.1%. In other funds, the deposit and pre payment increased by 29.7%, according to the individual.

房地产多指标背离 分析称地产价格面临调整风险加大 新华社痛批房地产风险 国家统计局13日发布的1至8月房地产开发投资和销售数据透露出一个讯息,房地产市场风险正在加剧。《经济参考报》记者发现,目前房地产市场多项指标出现相互背离的现象:一方面,房价飙升的同时,本应加速去化的房地产库存却呈下滑态势;另一方面,在房屋施工面积、新开工面积、竣工面积、销售面积、购地面积的增速纷纷回落的同时,全国房地产开发投资增速却出现微涨。业内人士表示,在信贷超发的预期下,当前“地王”层出,多地出现恐慌性购房。但在资金面的变化下,地产价格面临调整的风险加大。数据显示,1至8月,房地产开发企业房屋施工面积700121万平方米,同比增长4.6%,增速比1至7月回落0.2个百分点;房屋新开工面积106834万平方米,增长12.2%,增速回落1.5个百分点;房地产开发企业土地购置面积12922万平方米,同比下降8.5%,降幅比1至7月扩大0.7个百分点。值得注意的是,虽然房地产几个典型指标均有所下滑,但全国房地产开发投资增速却比1至7月提高了0.1个百分点,达64387亿元,同比名义增长5.4%。据悉,投资增速加快或缘于与购地面积下滑相背离的高企的土地成交价款。数据显示,虽然购地面积有所下滑,但前八个月土地成交价款却大幅增长7.9%,较上月提高0.8个百分点,达4632亿元。中原地产首席分析师张大伟表示,2016年以来,支撑房地产投资的施工数据已经出现回落。8月,新开工面积涨幅继续明显放缓,进而影响投资。然而,投资数据增幅却呈现微增。此外,虽然房企土地购置面积下降,但金额却大幅上涨。“数据背离说明在一些热点城市的楼市,不理性行为正在增多。”张大伟说。今年以来,各路资金涌入房地产市场。鹏元资信评估有限公司研究发展部研究员袁荃荃表示,从债券市场来看,通过对去年7月21日至今年7月21日的数据统计,近一年内,房企发债期数达到467期,实现直接融资共计8481.45亿元,房企的境内发债期数和规模出现井喷式增长。此外,房企到位资金来源结构发生变化。数据显示,1至8月,房地产开发企业到位资金91573亿元,同比增长14.8%,增速比1至7月回落0.5个百分点。其中,国内贷款增长仅1.7%,利用外资大幅下降52.6%,自筹资金仅增长0.6%,其他资金增长34.1%。在其他资金中,定金及预收款增长29.7%,个人按揭贷款增长52.2%。海通证券最新发布的报告称,2015年年中以来,居民贷款余额增速开始上行,截至今年7月达到17.7万亿元,同比增速达20%,远远超过存款增速。其中,占比过半的中长贷(80%以上是房贷)增速超过30%,今年以来平均每月新增量达到4400亿元。央行7月金融数据也显示,从贷款结构看,7月新增贷款4638亿元中的4575亿元都是新增住户部门贷款,与之相对的是非金融企业及机关团体贷款减少26亿元。住房按揭贷款成为7月新增人民币贷款的唯一主力。针对个人房贷的安全性,招商银行副行长刘建军此前曾表示:“房贷个体风险是不大的,中国银行业房贷的整体违约率、不良率都比较低。但如果经济持续下行,出现房地产市场的崩盘,那就是系统性风险。”更需要引起警惕的是,房地产去库存进程不尽人意。业内人士指出,由于当前地价高于房价,影响新开发节奏,一二线城市拥有土地的企业增加供应的积极性不高,三四线库存依然处于高位,导致去库存难度加大。根据统计局发布的数据计算,从2016年3月起,商品房库存有所下滑。3月库存环比下降0.56%,4至8月分别下降了1.14%、0.72%、1.04%、0.048%、0.72%。张大伟说,近两月库存降速明显放缓。从全国看,库存结构去化不均衡,反而是之前库存较少的一二线城市成为去库存的主力军,库存较多的三四线城市去化缓慢。多位业内人士认为,在这些相互背离的房地产数据背后,楼市泡沫激增,风险暗涌。海通证券分析师姜超表示,在全国性的地产周期见顶的背景下,一线城市成为吸金热点。但从存贷款数据来看,一线城市存款增速已大幅降低,且远低于贷款增速,意味着银行放贷能力在减弱,也预示着地产价格面临调整的风险加大。据悉,有关部门和相关城市近期相继发声或推出新政收紧楼市。近日,住建部在重提完善房地产调控的同时,表示支持上海严厉打击中介编造散布谣言的违法行为。北京则施行新政,封堵通过结婚骗取购房资质的行为。姜超说,从历史经验来看,没有永涨不跌的房价,居民短期内快速加杠杆创造出的地产繁荣往往蕴含非理性因素,也是难以持续的,这也决定了当前的货币流动结构和流向难以长期持续。( 梁倩 张莫)更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: