Yi Gang moderate management of total demand, monetary policy to avoid excessive easing-aizi

Yi Gang: moderate manage total demand of monetary policy to avoid excessive loose Yi Gang: moderate manage aggregate demand excessively loose monetary policy to avoid the reporter Lu Xiaoping Zhou Pengfeng Jiang Yuqiong, editor Sun Zhong held yesterday at the "50 Chinese Economic Forum 2016 annual meeting, the Central Bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang on the supply side reform comments. The main viewpoint of Yi Gang is that the main aspect of the current contradiction is the supply side structural reform, at the same time, the total demand management should be done well. In the total demand management, fiscal policy can encourage consumption and reduce crowding out effect, and monetary policy should avoid excessive easing. Yi Gang made an elaborate preparation for the speech. Yi Gang believes that the current supply side structural reform is to use reform to promote structural adjustment, it takes time. At the same time, the current supply side structural reform can not do without the appropriate total demand management, and the latter is in the auxiliary position. "Because many structural reforms in history have produced contractionary effects, in many crises, the IMF has proposed tightening the fiscal sector, causing further tightening of demand in this country, and some into deflation. In many cases, the need for structural reforms, to do a good job in the management of total demand, which is based on historical experience summary." Yi Gang theory. The next question is how to properly manage the total demand. Yi said, the so-called moderation is to grasp the degree, "degree" has three grasp dimensions: first, there is no risk of debt deflation; two can not exceed the ability to withstand the society; three does not appear relatively large liquidity contraction, hold the three lines. According to Yi Gang, some European countries and Japan carried out structural reforms, which produced some tightening effects. As far as social capacity was unable to be exceeded, employment mainly meant employment. The main battlefield of total demand management, Yi Gang believes that fiscal policy and monetary policy. Among these, the fiscal policy is structural policy natural, so fiscal policy when the supply side reform, should be the main battlefield of demand management, fiscal policy has many structural considerations, such as poverty alleviation, structural adjustment, the current implementation of the proactive fiscal policy, Yi Gang can encourage consumption, minimize the extrusion effect more articles. As for monetary policy, Yi Gang said that the current implementation of prudent monetary policy, to be robust, moderate, flexible, avoid excessive loose, because monetary policy over loose may produce asset price bubbles and devaluation pressure. In addition, Yi Gang mentioned how much downward pressure on the supply side structural reform will be calculated, which can be made up on the demand side, and the upper limit is no more than the potential growth rate of economic growth. Yi Gang, an example to explain: "if some economic downward pressure is three to fall up" process, in addition to the fiscal policy and monetary policy of the main battlefield, through shantytowns, precise poverty, reduce five social insurance and one housing fund and encourage individual consumption, the total demand of some GDP. "In my complement of 0.75 percentage points, the big number is the concept of 500 billion yuan.". So it is better to control the total demand in the reform, and the economic growth is relatively stable

易纲:适度管好总需求 货币政策避免过度宽松   易纲:适度管好总需求 货币政策避免过度宽松   ⊙记者 卢晓平 周鹏峰 姜隅琼 ○编辑 孙忠   在昨日召开的“中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”上,央行副行长易纲就供给侧改革发表了看法。易纲的主要观点:是当前矛盾的主要方面是供给侧结构性改革,同时要做好总需求管理。在总需求管理中,财政政策可以在鼓励消费、减少挤出效应方面做文章,货币政策要避免过度宽松。   易纲对此次发言做了精心的准备。易纲认为目前供给侧结构性改革是用改革的办法来推进结构调整,需要时间。同时,当前供给侧结构性改革离不开适当的总需求管理,后者处于辅助地位。   “因为历史上很多结构性改革产生了紧缩效应,在很多危机中,国际货币组织建议紧缩财政,造成这个国家需求进一步紧缩,有的陷入通缩。在很多情况下,需要进行结构性改革的时候,要做好总需求的管理,这是基于历史经验的总结。”易纲说。   接下来的问题是如何适度管好总需求。易纲说,所谓适度就是把握好度,“度”有三个把握维度:一是不产生债务通货紧缩的危险;二不能超越社会承受的能力;三不出现流动性比较大面积的紧缩,守住这三条线。   据易纲称,欧洲一些国家和日本进行结构性改革的时候,都产生了一些紧缩效应,至于不能超越社会的承受能力,主要指的是就业。   总需求管理的主战场,易纲认为是财政政策和货币政策。这其中,财政政策是天然的结构性政策,所以财政政策在供给侧改革的时候,应当是需求管理的主战场,财政政策有很多结构性考虑,比如扶贫、结构性调整,当前实行的是积极的财政政策,易纲认为可以在鼓励消费,尽量减少挤出效应上多做文章。   至于货币政策,易纲说当前实行的是稳健货币政策,要稳健、适度、灵活,避免过度宽松,因为货币政策过度宽松可能会产生资产价格泡沫和人民币贬值压力。   另外,易纲提到要测算下供给侧结构性改革会产生多大的经济下行压力,可以在需求侧做补齐,补齐的上限不超过经济增长的潜在增长率。   易纲举了一个例子予以说明:假如“三去一降一补”过程中产生一些经济向下的压力,在财政政策和货币政策这个主战场之外,通过棚户区改造、精准扶贫、降低五险一金、鼓励个性消费,可以补充一些GDP的总需求。   “在我这里补了0.75个百分点,大数就是5000亿元人民币的概念。这样就比较好控制改革时的总需求,经济增长还是比较稳健的,同时又不产生过热,又不产生其他的道德风险。”易纲说。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: